Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele, on Friday said Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could surpass pre-COVID trends by 2024.
Emefiele disclosed this at the 56th Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) Annual Bankers Dinner in Lagos.
The CBN Governor revealed the apex bank’s in-house model shows a continued and strong rebound of the domestic economy.
“CBN’s in-house model, after an exhaustive simulation with various oil price possibilities and numerous scenarios of other macroeconomic metrics, indicates a continued and strong rebound of the domestic economy,’’ he said.
Further, Emefiele said the near-term outlook of the country’s economy is brightening significantly; with improvements projected into the short and the medium term. He said that the real GDP growth rate is projected to remain robust and strengthen within the short term.
“Output growth rate is projected to remain positive from 4.03 per cent in 2021 Q3 to nearly 2.91 per cent in 2021 Q4; implying a total growth of about 3.10 per cent for 2021.
“Short-term projection indicates a continued strengthening of the growth rate.
”Deliberate structural policies and reforms are needed to raise these projected trend higher towards the desired 5 per cent average growth level,” he said.
Also, Emefiele said that output growth rate for the Nigerian economy is estimated by key institutions to consolidate in 2021. He said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank project real growth rates of 2.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively; while the Federal Ministry of Finance and National Planning estimates stand at 3.0 per cent.
“Generally, real GDP growth rate is projected to remain robust and strengthen within the short term; regardless of the immanent vulnerabilities.
“With this continued strengthening, real GDP could recover beyond the pre-pandemic levels by 2022. Q1. Further simulations of the medium-term projections suggest that Nigeria’s real GDP could surpass pre-COVID trends by 2024,’’ Emefiele said.
On inflation rate, the CBN governor said that headline inflation rate is expected to moderate to 15.35 per cent; as well as 14.91 per cent by December 2021 and February 2022, respectively. He said core inflation was equally forecasted to fall from 13.74 per cent in October 2021 to 13.39 per cent in December 2021 and further to 12.68 per cent by February 2022.