Nigeria limps out of recession in Q4 2020

Nigeria limps out of recession in Q4 2020

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria has exited the recent recession it plunged into; as GDP grew by 0.11 per cent in Quarter Four (Q4) 2020 from the 6.11 per cent contraction in Q3, signaling a gradual recovery from recession.

The NBS disclosed this in the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report (Q4 and Full Year 2020) released on its website on Thursday in Abuja.

Equally important, the GDP growth represented the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

“Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.

“As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44 per cent; it was higher by 3.74 per cent compared to Q3 2020. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68 per cent; indicating a second positive consecutive quarter-on-quarter real growth rate in 2020, after two negative quarters.’’

Further, annual growth of real GDP in Nigeria was estimated at –1.92 per cent; a decline of –4.20 per cent when compared to the 2.27 per cent recorded in 2019. Also, aggregate GDP stood at N43.564 billion in nominal terms.

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Compared to Q4 2019, the aggregate GDP rose slightly by a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 10.07 per cent; as the GDP aggregate for that period was N39.577 billion.

The NBS classified the Nigerian economy into the oil and non-oil sectors.

For the oil sector, in Q4; an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019; by -0.44 mbpd and Q3 2020 by –0.11 mbpd.

It added that real growth of the oil sector was –19.76 per cent (year-on-year) in Q4; indicating a decrease by –26.12 per cent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Also, the oil sector in Nigeria contributed 5.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32 per cent; as well as 8.73 per cent respectively. However, the non-oil sector grew by 1.69 per cent in real terms in Q4 2020; slower than the 2.26 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Nevertheless, the performance of the non-oil sector in Nigeria was better than the –2.51 per cent growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For the full year of 2020, the non-oil sector grew by –1.25 per cent compared to 2.06 per cent in 2019. Specifically, growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications and Broadcasting).

Other drivers were agriculture (crop production), real estate, manufacturing (food, beverage and tobacco); mining and quarrying (quarrying and other minerals) and construction, accounting for positive GDP.

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