Polls show Trudeau won’t form majority govt if Canada holds snap polls this year

Polls show Trudeau won’t form majority govt if Canada holds snap polls this year


As Canadian Prime Minister Justine Trudeau travels across the country in what appears to be a campaign trail for snap polls that are likely this year; polling data suggests his Liberal Party could once again end up with a minority government.


Trudeau’s Liberals currently have 157 seats in the 338-seat parliament; having fallen short of the majority mark of 170 in the 2019 election in which he became PM for a second time, but formed a minority government.


Main opposition Conservatives had won 121 seats – and a larger share of the votes – in the 2019 polls.


When Trudeau first became PM in 2015, he had come to power with a majority government; having then secured 184 seats.


Canada’s next round of federal elections are scheduled for October 2023.


Lately, his administration has been negotiating a wide range of issues in the build-up to a possible snap election this year; some which include his handling of the pandemic, administration of Covid-19 vaccines, economic recovery; recent discoveries of unmarked graves of indigenous children at former church school sites, and deaths from an unprecedented heatwave in western Canada.


A new poll from the firm Ipsos, conducted for the outlet Global News; has concluded that “a Liberal majority is now in doubt given tight races in seat-rich provinces and only a six-point lead nationally”.


Trudeau, however, is still in prime position to lead the next government; regardless of the number of seats his party wins if there’s a snap election.

ALSO READ: Trudeau condemns spate of arson attacks on Catholic churches as Canada reels from unmarked graves scandal



According to Ipsos, the ruling party has lost 2% support over the last one month, while the Conservatives have gained 4%.


Trudeau’s party continues to lead by 36% support against 30% backing for the Conservatives.


While 58% of the respondents are “closer to the opinion that it is time for a change in Ottawa”; if the 42% who believe Trudeau deserves re-election vote accordingly, Liberals “would cruise to a majority victory”.


Another recent poll, conducted by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute (ARI); noted that the Trudeau administration’s “handling of the pandemic has been a relative strength for the Liberal government over the last year and a half. Now, just one-in-five (19%) identify it as a top issue, down from 45% in March”.


According to the ARI survey, issues that are taking over voter consciousness include the climate crisis, economic recovery; size of the deficit, and indigenous issues, with the latter picking up “notable traction in recent months”.


The ARI poll also places the two main parties in a “statistical tie”; with the Liberals at 33% and the Conservatives at 31%.


A key challenge for Trudeau before he decides to go ahead with snap polls is gauging the mood of the voter base; which as of now seems not to favour federal elections.


As much as 37% of the electorate is “upset at the thought of a fall election”, 34% is “unsure about it”, and just 26% is “happy” with the prospect.

About The Author

Osigweh Lilian Oluchi is a graduate of the University of Lagos where she obtained a B.A (Hons) in English, Masters in Public and International affairs (MPIA). Currently works with 1stnews as a Database Manager / Writer. [email protected]

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